The State of General Aviation 2008
A weakening economy, soaring fuel prices, declining pilot population, escalating operating costs, and an election year that happens to be the same year the FAA reauthorization bill goes to Congress. If you think I am talking about 2008, you would be wrong. I was referring to 1980.
For those who have been in aviation that long, we have been there and lived through that. For those who haven’t, think of it like the movie “Groundhogs Day” starring Bill Murray. In that movie, the hero has to live the same day over and over until he gets it right. So it is for us in general aviation. All of the problems we face today are the very same issues we faced in 1980. Airport noise, EPA issues, safety, and the general perception that General Aviation is for a bunch of rich crazy folks with too much money and time on their hands existed in 1980 as well as 2008. But General Aviation survived, albeit smaller, leaner and slightly worse for wear, but it survived. From 1980 until 1994, it wasn’t a lot of fun, with more airframe manufacturers going out of business or ceasing production of piston airframes, than manufacturers actually building airframes. At one point, new aircraft production dipped to about 500 units annually from more than 17,000 in 1979. I read a statistic somewhere that claimed that 80 percent of the FBOs in business in 1980 are gone.
Licensed pilots have decreased in numbers by nearly 30 percent, and student starts have dropped to less than half of what they were in 1980.
Licensed pilots have decreased in numbers by nearly 30 percent, and student starts have dropped to less than half of what they were in 1980.
2006: Student 84,866 • Recreational 239 • Sport 939 • Private 219,233 • Commercial 117,610 • ATP 141,935 • Other 32,287* • Total Pilots 597,109 • Flight Instructor • 91,343
1980: Student 199,833 • Private 357,479 • Commercial 183,442 • ATP 69,569 • Other 16,748 • Total Pilots 827,071 • Flight Instructors 60,440
*source Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association
While those stats may seem bleak, general aviation is undergoing a metamorphosis that continues well beyond 2008. It is certainly true that there are many other recreational outlets vying for the discretionary dollar, but as the baby boomers age into their 50s and 60s there will be more discretionary dollars. Where once the flight schools were filled with wide-eyed kids dreaming of flying for the airlines, I am seeing many more 40 something’s ( or 50 or 60 something’s) learning to fly to facilitate a more mobile lifestyle. Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but it is what I see. Yes, there are fewer in number, but they can afford to be here and they go on to buy aircraft. Hence, the success of companies such as Cirrus and Colombia, who have correctly identified and catered to the high end of the market. These companies don’t build “bottom end of the market” aircraft; their offerings start north of $300,000. Though that may sound like a disproportionate sum of money, consider that in 1961 an average home in this country cost about $18,000, and coincidentally, a brand new Cessna 182 also cost about $18,000. In 2006, the average new home in this country cost about $249,000, and guess what, a new Cessna 182 cost about the same. So in relative dollars, relative to the value of other high value long depreciation assets, the cost of buying an airplane is about the same as it was in the heyday of the 1960s. Further, the baby boomer market as it relates to aviation should not be underestimated. Many in this generation have tasted the benefits of corporate aviation; others through affiliations with fractional time sharing and “jet card” programs totally get the advantage of private aviation, and can afford to be in it. The constant media attention paid to the emerging Very Light Jet industry focuses attention and interest otherwise unattainable on the benefits of general aviation.
Further, the proliferation of vacation properties in remote or hard to access areas only enhance the advantages of general aviation to an already affluent market. Coupled with the less than wonderful airline travel experience you can typically receive by any air carrier, it is less than difficult to figure out that if money can make that go away, it will. All of this bodes well for general aviation.
A few years ago, when Home Depot™ was taking over the home improvement business, things looked pretty bleak for the independent hardware store owners. But that industry re-invented itself, sold service and convenience instead of price, and though it went through some gyrations, turned out to be the fastest growing sector of the home improvement market.
If we face one real threat it is politics. The General Aviation Trust Fund has always been treated like the redheaded stepchild. Our elected officials like to keep it in the general fund to help balance the general budget but the paltry six billion dollars (paltry in relation to the multi trillion dollar federal budget) never gets spent on aviation. That coupled with the very powerful airline lobby pits commercial operators against private operators for an ever - shrinking piece of the federal budget pie. Why the airline types think that if Mr. Chief Executive Officer of a small company could no longer economically justify the use of the company King Air, or Baron or (insert your aircraft type), that he would come running back to the airlines for some more abuse and poor service is beyond me, but yet they perceive general aviation as a threat to their existence and thus lobby against anything that might make life better for us. “They” are well funded and well organized and “we” are represented by various alphabet groups who are all well intentioned, but only moderately equipped to fight the fight on the political level it needs to be fought.
When the government spends money on a program that is truly advantageous to GA, it gets killed by airline lobbyists. Look at the NASA SATS program. The Small Airport Transportation System is what we in general aviation have been doing forever: going to small airports with small planes and not tying up the national airspace system at the approximately 500 or so airports that are actually airline served. Yet that program was D.O.A. ADS-B, which was proved in Alaska under the Capstone program more than a decade ago would be a tremendous advantage to general aviation. Yet, though the technology exists, and the service it would provide would enhance safety and reduce controller workload, we are still ten years away from implementation. Why? Because GA is not perceived as any sort of national asset like the airline industry is and the airlines feel threatened by any spending that doesn’t directly benefit them. The good news is not only do the baby boomers want to fly small aircraft, they also vote, and take their politics seriously. The airlines have their hands full and the world continues to change, mostly toward instant results. In 1980, no one had cell phones. The very concept of 24/7 instant access did not exist. Yet today, everyone has a cell phone, and if you don’t answer it quickly enough, the caller gets annoyed. The same is happening with transportation. People want to get where they are going, and if the airlines can’t do the job or don’t go where they want to go, then General Aviation becomes the viable alternative.
So that is how I see the state of General Aviation. As an industry, it may look very different in twenty years than it does today, but it will survive, and grow and morph into something else, though you can expect a few “gyrations” along the way. If I had written this in 1980, I would have made the same statement.
Michael Leighton is a 4,500+ CFIIMEI-ATP, as well as an A&P mechanic and former F.A.A. Accident Prevention Counselor. He operates an aircraft management, maintenance and crew services company located in South Florida. You can reach him via e-mail at av8tor0414@aol.com, or find him on the web at http://web.mac.com/mkleighton